Scenarios for strategic decision-making and management

In the current period of dynamic changes in the business environment and uncertainties, traditional methods of strategic decision-making and management based on forecasts of significant factors affecting the economic performance of companies (demand, sales and purchase prices, availability of resources, exchange rates, etc.) ), as these forecasts are highly unreliable.

Scenarios representing variants of possible future developments are an important tool to support strategic decision-making and management in these conditions. The basis of scenario building is to identify trends in the key factors influencing the choice of strategy that are sufficiently reliable and to identify two key uncertainties. These are then combined to create four very different scenarios for the future, which form the basis for the development and selection of strategy options, which should be either robust, i.e. suitable for all scenarios, or flexible, allowing for adjustments depending on changes in future developments, representing a transition from one scenario to another.

In the current period, most developed Western companies apply scenarios in their strategy development. However, the scope of application of scenarios is not only business, but their use is much broader, e.g. in public and state administration.

The publication by renowned authors, which is the only one on this topic on our market, presents in a clear and practice-oriented way the methods of scenario development, the process of obtaining and processing information for this development and the application of scenarios in strategic decision-making and planning. In addition to the benefits, the book presents barriers and a critical perspective on the scenarios. The interpretation is complemented by a number of examples of scenario applications, mainly from abroad, in business, public and state administration and at the national and global level.